The Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) has now been above +1.5°C for 18 months now and shows no sign of dropping below that level.
The Rate of Warming is now estimated as +0.27°C/decade up to +0.37°C/decade.
In 2023 the fires in the Boreal Forests released as much CO2 as the 4th largest polluter in the world, or as much as the global aviation industry.
Those same forests, due to heat stress and wildfire smoke, did not take in CO2. Across the world the Terrestrial Carbon Sinks that absorb about 25% to 35% of our annual emissions failed in 2023.
That increased the atmospheric CO2 load by about a extra +9.5Gt in 2023. Resulting in a +81% increase in the year over year increase in CO2 levels. The CO2 increase in 2023 was over +3ppm for the first time.
2024 has been hotter than 2023.
With this election it is clear that the US will DO NOTHING about the Climate Crisis. If anything is going to be done it will have to be by the Chinese.
Let’s be REALLY CLEAR about this. It’s TOO LATE to do anything about this without attempting GEOENGINEERING the Climate System. Probably using SOx aerosols to increase the planetary ALBEDO to reflect more sunlight away from the planet.
James Hansen, and the team of climate scientists who work with him, are calling for a HUGE build out of nuclear power plants AND a global program to “turn the sky WHITE” with sulfate particulates. In conjunction with a CRASH effort to slash Global CO2 emissions as quickly as possible.
By their reckoning, “It’s the ONLY plan that has a chance of working and preserving our civilization.”
Anything short of that, “is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic while we wait for the ship to go down”.
Start thinking in terms of COLLAPSE by 2050 now.
I used to think Collapse would be gradual and play out over the rest of the century. Last nights election means we won't do what Hansen suggests.
It probably means +4°C by 2050 and a -80% decline in agricultural outputs.
Collapse is going to play out now over the next 25 years. By 2050 the human population is likely to be less than 20% of current levels and most of civilization will be gone.
When they stole the presidency from Bernie Sanders, I lost hope for the Dems. It's been downhill ever since. Now with less than 50 years left before total civilizational collapse, I believe political puppets were never going to fix anything. Population Overshoot, peak oil and CO2 emissions can't be fixed with policy. Least of all with empty Democrat platitudes of "hope and unity". Whether its Marxism or Fascism it's still just an authoritarian fight over the remaining resources. Personally, I'd rather have the fascists then the big corrupt government that pretends to be my friend, care for the downtrodden, and care for the environment with magical thinking and "sustainable development". At least the Republicans aren't shy about their lies and brazen ignorance. They also have a minimal understanding that the modern world runs on oil, not on wishful thinking, free money or utopian rainbows.
Anyway, enough about what I think. No one here cares.
Of all the left leaning stuff I've read about Trump's landslide, yours was one of the least unhinged. I appreciate your calm advice for moving forward, getting outside and living life. But I would say you still have time. The brown shirts won't be knocking on your door tomorrow (or ever). Like you found after 2016, the world didn't end right away. Yes, you still live in one of the most desired countries in the world to live in. It'll still take some time for that to change. (Watch not a single celebrity Dem will leave the country because America will still be the freest country for years to come).
If the Democrats ever get their heads out of their asses for a moment of self-reflection and honesty, they may be able to rebuild an identity and win back the hearts of Americans next election. But I imagine that the decline of Western Civilization will instead further divide people and make them more insane with Trump Derangement syndrome.
There is probably less time than you think.
The Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) has now been above +1.5°C for 18 months now and shows no sign of dropping below that level.
The Rate of Warming is now estimated as +0.27°C/decade up to +0.37°C/decade.
In 2023 the fires in the Boreal Forests released as much CO2 as the 4th largest polluter in the world, or as much as the global aviation industry.
Those same forests, due to heat stress and wildfire smoke, did not take in CO2. Across the world the Terrestrial Carbon Sinks that absorb about 25% to 35% of our annual emissions failed in 2023.
That increased the atmospheric CO2 load by about a extra +9.5Gt in 2023. Resulting in a +81% increase in the year over year increase in CO2 levels. The CO2 increase in 2023 was over +3ppm for the first time.
2024 has been hotter than 2023.
With this election it is clear that the US will DO NOTHING about the Climate Crisis. If anything is going to be done it will have to be by the Chinese.
Let’s be REALLY CLEAR about this. It’s TOO LATE to do anything about this without attempting GEOENGINEERING the Climate System. Probably using SOx aerosols to increase the planetary ALBEDO to reflect more sunlight away from the planet.
James Hansen, and the team of climate scientists who work with him, are calling for a HUGE build out of nuclear power plants AND a global program to “turn the sky WHITE” with sulfate particulates. In conjunction with a CRASH effort to slash Global CO2 emissions as quickly as possible.
By their reckoning, “It’s the ONLY plan that has a chance of working and preserving our civilization.”
Anything short of that, “is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic while we wait for the ship to go down”.
Start thinking in terms of COLLAPSE by 2050 now.
I used to think Collapse would be gradual and play out over the rest of the century. Last nights election means we won't do what Hansen suggests.
It probably means +4°C by 2050 and a -80% decline in agricultural outputs.
Collapse is going to play out now over the next 25 years. By 2050 the human population is likely to be less than 20% of current levels and most of civilization will be gone.
Alas Babylon.
1) Holy shit dude I read your dispatches all the time I can't believe you commented on my article.
2) I honestly expected you to say Collapse by 2030-2040 before I clicked expand. So I'm pretty sure we're on the same page.
3) All the more reason why spending the remaining time not in an autocracy would have been so precious.
I’m glad you found someone who isn’t in denia. This is priceless. l Good luck to you both.
Thank you me too. I wish you luck as well my friend in the struggle.
Let's not forget that there will be no more oil in 48 years.
When they stole the presidency from Bernie Sanders, I lost hope for the Dems. It's been downhill ever since. Now with less than 50 years left before total civilizational collapse, I believe political puppets were never going to fix anything. Population Overshoot, peak oil and CO2 emissions can't be fixed with policy. Least of all with empty Democrat platitudes of "hope and unity". Whether its Marxism or Fascism it's still just an authoritarian fight over the remaining resources. Personally, I'd rather have the fascists then the big corrupt government that pretends to be my friend, care for the downtrodden, and care for the environment with magical thinking and "sustainable development". At least the Republicans aren't shy about their lies and brazen ignorance. They also have a minimal understanding that the modern world runs on oil, not on wishful thinking, free money or utopian rainbows.
Anyway, enough about what I think. No one here cares.
Of all the left leaning stuff I've read about Trump's landslide, yours was one of the least unhinged. I appreciate your calm advice for moving forward, getting outside and living life. But I would say you still have time. The brown shirts won't be knocking on your door tomorrow (or ever). Like you found after 2016, the world didn't end right away. Yes, you still live in one of the most desired countries in the world to live in. It'll still take some time for that to change. (Watch not a single celebrity Dem will leave the country because America will still be the freest country for years to come).
If the Democrats ever get their heads out of their asses for a moment of self-reflection and honesty, they may be able to rebuild an identity and win back the hearts of Americans next election. But I imagine that the decline of Western Civilization will instead further divide people and make them more insane with Trump Derangement syndrome.